Our Piedmont Real Estate Market Analysis
CURRENT HEAT INDEX
97.3°
▲ 2.9° from last month
AVERAGE SALE PRICE VS. LISTING PRICE
12.5%
▼ 5.9% from last month
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
17.9
▼ 12.7 days from last month
UPDATED May 3, 2023
April is historically the hottest month of the year in Piedmont real estate, but after a volatile winter, the Heat Index came in at a relatively “normal” 97 degrees.
11 homes sold last month (most of them in under 3 weeks), for a price 10-20% above asking.
—Matt
Piedmont Historical Heat Index, 2006-2024
Piedmont Sale Price as a Percentage of Asking Price, 2006-2024
2024
JANUARY 2024
January proves the importance of a reasonable sample size in calculating market data! Only 2 homes sold in Piedmont (both listed below $1,000,000) leading to an all-time high Heat Index of 154 degrees! The homes that sold received 14 and 20 offers, respectively.
Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels since June, which probably encouraged some of those 34 prospective buyers to up their offers.
February of 2022 had a similar spike, so we’ll probably have to wait until later in the Spring to get an accurate temperature reading for what 2024 might have in store.
February 2024
After January’s record heat (due to sample size), February came in with a much more typical—and believable—reading of 85 degrees.
Limited inventory and higher interest rates are both still playing a significant role, and despite a couple of homes with extended sales processes, the average time on market was still under a month.
March 2024
March was in like a lion and out like a lion - one home sold mid-month which had been on the market for 115 days, and the heat index still clocked in at over 94 degrees.
As we enter what is historically the hottest month, most homes are selling in under two weeks, for an average of 20-30% above asking price.
2023
DECEMBER 2023
Brrr!
Low inventory, high interest rates, relatively low sales prices, and extended times on market combined for a frigid sub-60 Heat Index in December.
December is generally one of the colder months but this was the lowest reading since December of 2018. Interest rates have come down slightly and inventory should improve by February, which might make this a more comfortable climate for both sides in early 2024.
NOVEMBER 2023
November was 4 degrees hotter than October, and marked the third straight month that the average sale price was at least 10% over asking. Homes also sold in a slightly shorter timeframe (23 days).
Temperatures overall have been pretty consistent for the last three months, but we’re now entering a quarter of traditionally-lower inventory, which may affect the winter readings.
OCTOBER 2023
October’s Heat Index dropped nearly 10 degrees to 86, but the average sale price remained a healthy 11% above asking. The temperature dip was largely driven by a slightly longer average time on market.
8 homes closed in the month, which is typical for this time of year. In fact, were it not for one home on-market for 106 days, October would have been a carbon copy of September’s 96-degree reading.
September 2023
September’s Heat Index of 96 made a strong rebound from August’s chilly temperature reading.
Historically, September is one of the cooler months as summer inventory that has not sold finally moves off-market. In 2023, it appears most of that extended-time inventory sold in August.
The numbers for September are all pretty close to what we saw from February - May of this year, so this feels a lot closer to “normal” vs. what we saw this summer.
August 2023
Brrrr. August’s Heat Index was 72.6 degrees, making it the second-coolest summertime month since September of 2014. Only six homes were sold, which is also a surprise for the time of year.
Ordinarily this would make for a very comfortable buying climate, but relatively high interest rates are putting pressure on both sides of most transactions right now.
July 2023
July’s Heat Index came in at a comfortable 84 degrees, and it looks like this summer will remain cool overall. All three core market indicators were up just a tick in sellers’ favor but well below where they were a year ago.
As with June’s 81-degree reading, plenty of homes sold (13), a handful featured an extended time on the market, which dragged down the overall market temperature.
June 2023
May’s cooling trend continued, as June came in at a chilly 81 degrees.
Plenty of homes sold (12), but three of the 12 were on the market for over 45 days, which dragged down the overall market temperature.
There’s still healthy buyer demand for homes under $2,000,000, but higher-priced homes in June went for right at, or below, asking price.
May 2023
May cooled off to 91 degrees, somewhat unexpectedly, driven by homes remaining on the market for an extra few days relative to April, and a generally low number of offers per listing.
Only three out of 11 sellers didn’t receive their full asking price, but most homes a year ago were selling for 120-130% of asking price.
April 2023
April is historically the hottest month, so it wasn’t surprising to see the Heat Index rise to just shy of 100 degrees, particularly with only 3 homes sold this month.
Inventory remains very limited as sellers with a low-interest mortgage may be hesitant to move.
March 2023
The market held relatively steady in March, with a slight decrease in Heat Index to 92.9, driven largely by the typical home spending a few extra days on the market.
2023 is off to a very calm start, but April is historically the hottest month in our Heat Index, so stay tuned for our next update.
February 2023
February provided a bit larger sample size than January, with 5 homes sold in Piedmont, and there’s reason for optimism for both buyers and sellers.
For buyers: a little more predictability in terms of what kind of offer will win a home—the Heat Index moved just a degree vs. January. Q4 2022 is looking like more of an aberration as the market adjusted to higher interest rates, as 99 degrees is right inline with the 100-degree range we’ve seen largely since 2020.
They also have a little more time to decide just how much they want to offer for a new home on the market—about two weeks as opposed to the frenzy more commonly measured in hours over the last couple of years.
For sellers: homes are selling relatively quickly, though at a slightly slower pace than the rolling three-month average, and are still receiving multiple offers, with an average sale price 10% above asking.
January 2023
Not much analysis required for our Heat Index this month, as only one home sold in Piedmont in the month of January.
We’re starting to see a bit more inventory in February, so I’d guess the next update will be a bit more representative sample.
2022
2022 ended much chillier than it began, with December coming in at a relatively cool 80 degrees.
There just wasn’t much activity due to low inventory, with only three homes sold the entire month (none had been on the market longer than 30 days).
The market seems to be finding some balance, but we really need a larger sample size to draw any significant conclusions, which may not come until Spring.
December did mark the first time in 3 years that homes sold on average for below asking price, albeit barely below at -1.1%.
The year ended with an average Heat Index of 94 degrees, which is mostly inline with where temperatures have been since 2013.
November 2022
November’s Heat Index was a surprisingly hot 101.
Looking at the data, this was driven by a slight increase in the average sale price vs. asking and a significant drop in the average time spent on market — down to just 13 days.
This means we’re seeing relatively few homes still “stuck” on the market, with new inventory moving relatively quickly.
October 2022
October’s Heat Index nudged slightly higher at 73 degrees, but nowhere near the record heat we saw earlier in the year.
Homes sold considerably faster (just over a month on the MLS, on average) and are still typically selling for above-asking.
Despite rising interest rates, inventory is still low, which means we may be settling into a little bit of a new temperature range in the 70s.
September 2022
We are officially in a cold snap. September’s 64-degree reading is the second-lowest since February of 2015, and is down over 40 degrees from June’s 105-degree temperature.
Unfortunately for buyers, increasing mortgage rates are clearly contributing to the more “favorable” market.
September is historically one of the coldest months as sellers whose homes listed earlier in the summer start to feel increased pressure, but this year is a particularly dramatic cooldown.
August 2022
The market cooldown has officially arrived in Piedmont. August’s 80-degree Heat Index is the lowest summer temperature since September of 2014. It’s a 25-degree drop from June.
The Heat Index for the year is still 101, but buyers are now in a more comfortable position than they’ve been in some time.
July 2022
July’s Heat Index clocked in at a relatively comfortable 93 degrees—we finally saw the cooldown that the rest of the Bay Area had been experiencing for a number of months.
July was the coolest summer month since June of 2020, with the average sale price “just” 9.5% above asking…but it was still 10 degrees higher than the historical average for the month.
It’s still a very competitive market for buyers, but macro-economic pressures and rising interest rates seem to have cooled demand a bit.
June 2022
As I said last month, not a lot of changes in June’s Heat Index…we appear to be reaching an equilibrium.
June’s Heat Index was unchanged from May at 105, making things awfully uncomfortable for buyers, even without considering the continuing upward pressure on interest rates.
May 2022
There were not a lot of differences between April and May home sales, perhaps a sign that we’re at the start of a (still very hot) equilibrium.
May’s Heat Index was 105, despite a larger number of home sales and homes staying on the market long enough for two Open House weekends, on average.
Successful buyers are still bidding an uncomfortable 16.3% above asking price on average, even with higher interest rates.
April 2022
It’s hard to consider a 103-degree Heat Index “cool,” but things are cooling off slightly from February’s all-time record and March’s 8th-highest-ever temperature.
Historically, April has actually been the hottest month, and April 2022 was still 9 degrees above normal.
Rising interest rates may be reducing buyer demand slightly, but homes are still selling in about two weeks for well-above asking price.
March 2022
While the market temperature was down 19 degrees relative to February, March continued to be uncomfortably hot for buyers in Piedmont. Even with that drop, it was still the 8th-hottest month of all-time, and 23 degrees above normal.
Homes continue to sell in right around two weeks on average — barely lasting beyond a second weekend of open houses.
We saw 9 homes sold in Piedmont overall, nudging upward from February, but still low enough to generate considerable heat.
February 2022
Whoa. February set not just an all-time record for the hottest February in Piedmont, but it was the hottest month all-time by a full 10 degrees.
On average, homes sold for an astonishing 125% of asking price, and lasted just 10 days on the MLS.
There were only 6 sales for the month, but limited inventory is quickly becoming the norm in this market — and not just in the winter months.
January 2022
January 2022 saw a return to a more comfortable temperature for buyers…but with an extremely limited sample size of just 2 home sales in Piedmont for the entire month, it’s hard to extrapolate too much.
Despite a return to “comfort,” January’s temperature was still 14 degrees higher than the historical average. Given this month’s historical position as the coolest time of year, I’d still say 2022 is shaping up to be a hot one.
2021
2021 went out with the hottest December on record — due to relatively low inventory and homes lasting an incredibly low average of just 8.1 days on the market.
December’s record high helped 2021 eclipse 2017 as the hottest year on record in Piedmont, averaging over 100 degrees in the Heafey Baum Heat Index.
November 2021
As I predicted during October’s write-up, November heated up by six degrees. In fact it looked a lot more like a summer month than most years. Our market continues to be just blazing hot — uncomfortably so for buyers.
Most long-standing listings sold in October, as only 2 out of 14 homes that closed in November were on the market for longer than 30 days.
And offers continued to be extremely competitive — an average of 13.6% above asking, with some as high as 30% above asking.
October 2021
October saw the sharpest Heat Index drop since…October of last year.
Homes that “sit” through the end of the summer tend to bring down the average temperature in October — both in terms of days on market and the lower premium paid by buyers to purchase those homes.
The volume of sales was surprisingly high (17 homes), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see November to actually “warm up” a bit as inventory levels are typically pretty low this time of year.
September 2021
Temperatures cooled slightly heading into the fall season, but hovered right near the 100-degree mark all month — a sign that buyer demand remains high.
Though homes stayed on the market slightly longer (just shy of three weeks), on average, they sold for 16% over asking price.
September is typically a relatively cool month, and this year’s Heat Index is still 20 degrees above normal!
August 2021
2021’s heat wave continued into August with the temperature an uncomfortable 101 degrees for buyers.
Though homes stayed on the market slightly longer (just shy of three weeks), on average, they sold for 16% over asking price.
August might have been even hotter, were it not for a handful of listings on the market for more than 4 weeks.
July 2021
July cooled off just a little bit, with homes staying on the market nearly a full week longer than in June. But it was still the third month in a row with a Heat Index north of 100 degrees and is right in line with 2021’s 101-degree average overall.
Though they remained on the market a little longer, homes still sold for an average of 14% over asking price in July.
June 2021
2021’s scorching hot temperatures continue, with June clocking in at 105—19 degrees above June’s historical average. 2021 continues to be the hottest year on record. It’s a very uncomfortable market for buyers right now.
Homes stayed on the market for a few days longer in June, but still sold for an average of 14% over asking price.
May 2021
May was the 7th-hottest month on record in Piedmont and brought the 2021 average over 100 degrees, making it the hottest year on record.
Low inventory and low interest rates are continuing to combine to make the buying process very competitive, with the average home selling after just 10 days on the market.
What Is the Piedmont Heat Index℠?
The Heat Index is a proprietary metric Matt Heafey developed as a way to explain to our clients and prospective clients at a glance the overall health of our local real estate market.
The index takes into account a number of factors, including the velocity of total inventory, the percentage premium of the sale price vs. the listing price, and more.
Much like the meteorological heat index, comfortable temperatures range from the low 70’s to low 80’s. Colder temperatures mean things are less comfortable for sellers; warmer temperatures mean things are less comfortable for buyers.